价格改革对天然气产业链的传导效应及对策建议

天然气价格改革是我国能源体制革新的重要领域。为了总结我国天然气价格改革的政策效果,明确未来重点改革方向,以2014年和2015年的天然气价格改革为背景,从天然气产业链关联角度,通过VAR模型分析验证天然气价格改革对产业链产生的传导效应。模型分析结果表明:①价格传导机制从门站价格发生中断,无对外作用,无法对天然气生产量和消费量产生影响;②天然气产量、消费量和相关产业的发展只会在时序上对价格改革政策的发布时机产生影响,但是天然气价格调整方向仍然是独立的,受政府政策的影响大;③相关产业的发展会对天然气产量和消费量产生巨大影响且影响方向复杂,并在价格传导过程中发挥重要的中介作用。结论认为:①天然气价格应该与其他能源价格挂钩并适度管制、适度放权;②天然气价格改革需要发挥能源产业的交叉强化作用;③在价格改革的过程中,应从产运销链的角度,实施统一的价格改革。

Transmission effect of price reform on natural gas industry chain and countermeasures

Natural gas price reform is an important part in China’s energy system innovation. Based on the correlation of natural gas industry chain, the transmission effect of natural gas price reform on industry chain was verified by means of VAR model analysis in the background of natural gas price reform in 2014 and 2015. Then, policy effects of China’s natural gas price reform were summarized and the important reform direction was proposed. Model analysis reveals the following situations. First, price transmission system is interrupted at the city station and its effects can not be delivered externally, so natural gas production and consumption are not influenced by the price transmission system. Second, natural gas production and consumption and the development of related industries can only affect the issuing time of price reform policies in time sequence, but the adjustment direction of natural gas prices is still independent and mainly influenced by government policies. Third, the development of related industries have immense and complex effects on natural gas production and consumption, and also exert an important intermediary effect in the process of price transmission. Therefore, it is concluded that natural gas price should be pegged with the prices of other energies and regulated moderately. Moreover, it is necessary to exert the cross reinforcement effect of energy industry on natural gas price reform. In the process of price reform, the unified price reform should be adopted from the viewpoint of production-transportation-distribution chains.