油气生产企业重大安全突发事件社会影响扩散模型

油气生产企业发生安全突发事件的频率较高,一般性安全突发事件极易借助一定的条件和动力扩散成为重大安全突发事件,进而造成巨大的经济损失甚至带来更为严重的社会负面影响。为了有效控制突发事件的发生、扩散和衍变,通过分析重大安全突发事件属性及强度、承灾对象脆弱性、应对体系脆弱性这3个扩散影响因素,借助系统分析思想和系统动力学方法构建了社会影响扩散模型来有效控制事件扩散升级;结合油气生产常见突发事件对3个扩散因素进行控制管理分析,建立了影响因素脆弱性指标评价体系,并提出借助层次分析法进行对象脆弱性的定量分析。最后指出:油气生产企业应加强日常管理和监督,降低重大安全突发事件发生的可能性;寻找控制承灾对象和社会应对体系脆弱性的关键因素并进行有效管理,降低事件扩散的速度和可能性。该成果可为安全突发事件的控制、预警机制的构建提供参考。

Modeling of social impact diffusion of major security emergencies in oil gas production companies

In such a high risk industry, an oil gas production company has a higher frequency of encountering emergent security incidents. Under certain circumstances, general security emergencies may evolve into some major evens resulting in huge economic losses or even negative social impacts. This study aims to efficiently manage and control the occurrence, spreading and deterioration of any emergent events. First, three main influencing factors were focused on: the attribute and intensity of the emergency response system; the vulnerability of the hazard affected objects; and the weakness of the emergency response system. Second, the social impact diffusion model was established to keep the event under control based on the systems analysis theory and system dynamics method. Third, according to the regular occurrence of events in oil and gas production, control and management analysis was made to control the said three influencing factors and their vulnerability was evaluated by an index evaluation system with the application of AHP. In the end, it was pointed out that such a company should also strengthen their routine management and supervision to mitigate the risk in any emergent incidents and should try to find out and manage the key vulnerability factors of the hazard affected objects and social response system to prevent an acute and emergent event from spreading and getting deteriorated.