油气企业经济预警系统研究

随着我国油气消费对国际市场依存度的增加和油气市场开放，世界政治经济形势及国际油气市场的波动对我国油气企业的影响越来越大。为了实施可持续发展战略，对影响和制约油气企业生存和发展的主要因素进行监测和预警，预示企业在未来发展中可能出现的危机，及时调整发展战略，确保企业沿着稳定健康的轨道发展，有必要建立油气企业经济预警系统。为此沿着明确警义、寻找警源、分析警兆、确定警限、预报警度、综合预警的逻辑顺序，主要采用黄色预警方法，构建了油气企业经济预警系统的指标体系，采用目标值、合理经济界限和行业值等方法确定预警警限，并进行了综合预警。该预警系统能评价和判断油气企业生产经营活动当前的运行态势，找出与同行企业的差距，预测油气企业未来生产经营可能的发展趋势，将趋势值与各种状态的边界值及其预警信号区间进行比较，及时发出各种信号，对未来可能发生的问题做出警示。

ECONOMY ALARMING SYSTEM FOR OIL AND GAS ENTERPRISES

Along with being more open to and much reliable on the global market, Chinese oil and gas enterprises have been influenced largely by the price fluctuation in oil and gas world market under current political and economic situation. To take sustainable development strategic tactics, it is high time for Chinese oil and gas companies to have their own economy alarming system so as to survey and predict on those main factors restricting and having bad effects on the survival and stable developing of companies. With this alarming system, companies may be warned before being thrown into any possible crisis on the way of development so as to adjust their developing tactics in time ensuring their progress in a stable and keep going way. According to logic alarming order, alarming items statement → searching for alarming source → analyzing alarming omens → determining alarming bounds → alarming levels → integrated alarming, a Yellow Alarming Method was mainly adopted to build up indicators of economy alarming system for oil and gas companies to determine alarming bounds by use of many methods such as target value, reasonable economic bounds and industry value to have the integrated alarming. This alarming system can evaluate and judge on the present developing trend for production and operation in the companies, find out their