最终可探明储量预测——以潜江凹陷王广油气聚集区为例

应用油气藏规模序列和广义帕莱托两种统计方法，对潜江凹陷王广油气聚集区油气藏分布、油气藏个数、最终可探明储量及剩余可探明储量进行了研究.结果表明，该区预测的油气藏总数100～108个，最终可探明储量为（6272.36～6862.05）×10⁴t，待发现油藏个数为61～69个，待发现探明储量为（2092.96～2682.65）×10⁴t，剩余探明储量中，以小于50×10⁴t的油气藏为主。分析认为：①油气藏规模序列法适用于一个完整的、独立的盆地（凹陷）和成藏体系，如果勘探程度高、资源分布清楚，则效果更佳，是一个比较实用的评价方法；②广义帕莱托分布模型考虑了勘探程度对油气藏规模分布特征参数的影响，适用于不同类型、不同勘探程度的盆地（凹陷）和成藏体系。

PREDICTION OF ULTIMATE RESERVES TO BE PROVED: TAKING WANGGUANG OIL/GAS AREA IN QIANJIANG SAG, JIANGHAN SALINE BASIN AS AN EXAMPLE

Two statistical methods, namely reservoir scale sequence and generalized Pareto distribution, are used to predict the distribution of reservoirs, the number of oil and gas pools, the ultimate reserves to be proved, and the remaining reserves to be proved in Wangguang oil/gas area in Qianjiang sag, Jianghan saline basin. It is predicted that the total number of pools is in the range from 100 to 108, the ultimate reserves to be proved ranges from 62.7236 to 68.6205 million tons, the number of pools to be discovered ranges from 61 to 69, and the remaining reserves to be proved ranges from 20.9296 to 26.8265 million tons and are dominated by small pools with reserves lower than 500 000 tons. The reservoir scale sequence method is suitable for use in an integral separate basin (sag) and reservoiring system. It is more effective in case of high exploration maturity and clear resources distribution, thus it is a relatively practical resources assessment method. The generalized Pareto distribution model takes the influences of exploration maturity on the characteristic parameter of reservoir scale distribution into consideration, thus is suitable for use in basins (sags) and reservoir systems of different types and with different exploration maturities.