天然气开采的耗竭性定价模型及市场定价的参数估计

以耗竭性资源经济理论为基础，推导出了天然气开采的耗竭性定价理论模型，同时对天然气市场定价做出一个经验估计。利用数理经济方法进行推导可知：天然气市场定价主要与资源储量、市场需求弹性、市场利率以及其可开采的时间长度相关。利用中国天然气产业的统计数据对模型参数进行经验估计，检验结果表明：①天然气市场需求价格缺乏弹性；②价格与资源储量和市场利率呈反向变动关系，而与资源的设计开采能力呈现正向变动关系。虽然所建立的定价模型是在前人相关成果基础上的深入研究，但却是首次建立了耗竭性资源开采初始定价的理论模型。当然，因样本数据的选取和其他因素的影响，其经验估计结果只能作为企业定价的理论参考，实践中，其定价参数还有待进一步的检验。

TO BUILD UP A NEW GAS PRICING MODEL OF THE EXHAUSTIBLE NATURAL GAS EXPLOITATION AND TO ESTIMATE ITS INVOLVED PARAMETERS

Based on the economic theory about the exhaustible resources, this study established a new pricing model of natural gas exploitation and estimated the parameters of Chinese gas industry by the econometric method. From this model, it showed that gas pricing was influenced by market demand, resource reserves, gas producible time, and interest rate, etc. By use of statistic data from Chinese natural gas industry from 1990 to 2004, the parameters involved in this model were estimated and revalued. The regression results showed ①that the gas price in the market demand was inflexible, and ② that gas price varied opposite to the change of resource reserves and interest rate, but altered forward to the designed gas producible capacity. Although upon the predecessors' work, this new pricing model was first set up for initial pricing of exhaustible resource exploitation. Because the parameters were impacted by the data's collection and some other factors, the estimation results were only regarded as reference for gas producing companies. If using in practical market, the parameters of gas pricing needed to be verified further in the future.