多峰预测模型的建立与应用

在油田开发之后，利用动态数据，适时地进行产量和可采储量预测，是一项重要的任务。目前拥有的预测方法包括：油藏数值模拟法、预测模型法、物质平衡法和产量递减法等。其中的预测模型法是一种比较实用有效的全程预测方法。著名的广义翁氏模型、威布尔模型、瑞利模型、HCZ模型、哈伯特模型、对数正态分布模型等，都是以单峰开发模式为基础所建立的预测模型。这些模型对双峰或多峰的开发模式，不能取得可靠的预测结果。多峰预测模型及其非线性多参数自动拟合技术，可以有效地用于多峰开发模式。实际应用表明，多峰预测模型是实用有效的。

Establishment and Application of the Multi-Peak Forecasting Model

After the development of the oil field, it is an important task to predict the production and the recoverable reserves opportunely by the production data. At present, the forecasting methods include reservoir numerical simulation, forecasting model, material balance and production decline ones, and so on. Of these methods, the forecasting model is a useful and effective one for entire forecasting. The famous generalized Weng model, Weibull model, Rayleigh model, HCZ model, Hubbert model, Lognormal distribution model are major forecasting models based on the development model of a single peak, by which the reliable results can not be obtained for dual?peak and multi?peak development model. In this paper a multi?peak forecasting model and its nonlinear multi?parameters automatic matching techniques are proposed, which are effective for the multi?peak development model. According to the practical application, this multi?peak forecasting model is practical and effective