对中国石油未来潜在可采资源量的预测

中国石油的总可采资 源量,应由己发现的可采资源量和未发现的可采资源量组成。后者可称之为未来潜在可采资源量。基于文献1]提出的图解法原理,利用文献2]所建立的威布尔(Weibull)预测模型,提出了预测中国石油的总可采资源量和未来潜在可采资源量的方法。通过我国资料的实际应用表明,提供的方法是有效的。我国石油总可采资源量和未来潜在可采资源量的预测结果,分别为100×10⁸ t 和40.7×10⁸ t.

Forecast for Future Potential Recoverable Resource of China Petroleum

Total petroleum recoverable resources of China consists of discovered recoverable resources and undiscovered recoverable resources. The latter may be called future potential recoverable resources. A method of forecasting total petroleum recoverable resources and future potential recoverable resources is proposed in this paper, based on graphical method of reference 1] and Weibull model of reference 2]. By applying practically with China's data the method proposed in this paper is effective. The forecasting results of China＇s total petroleum recoverable resource and future potential recoverable resources are 100×l08t and 40.7×l08t, respectively.