核电厂地震PSA中的风险定量化研究

论述了核电厂地震概率安全评价（PSA）定量化方法和工具的现状，指出了定量化工具面临的挑战和存在的问题。根据定量化的概率论本质，提出了计算方法。以我国某核电厂厂址多方案概率地震危险性分析（PSHA）结果和核电厂地震响应分析给出的最小割集为例，展示了计算方法的应用过程，分析了地震动参数和置信度参数对定量化计算结果的影响。结果表明，针对置信度参数进行拉丁超立方采样，采样次数较小时即可给出地震导致的核电厂堆芯损坏频率（SCDF）的稳定估计值；通常情况下，设备失效对SCDF的贡献最大，厂房失效的影响相对较小；地震动年发生率对SCDF的贡献需要根据工程场地的位置进行具体分析。 

Research of Quantification Method of Risk in Seismic Probabilistic?Safety Analysis in Nuclear Power Plants

The current status of quantification method and tools for seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in nuclear power plants was discussed, and the challenges faced by quantitative tools and the issues need to be resolved was suggested. A quantitative method based on the nature of probability theory was proposed. The application process of the calculation method was demonstrated, taking the results of multi-plan probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and the minimum cut set given by the seismic response analysis of a nuclear power plant in China as inputs, and then ?the effect of ground motion parameters and confidence parameters on the quantitative results was analyzed. The results demonstrate that the Latin hypercube sampling for the confidence parameter can give a stable estimate of the core damage frequency caused by earthquake (SCDF) in the nuclear power plant even the number of samples is small; in general, the equipment failure contributes the most to the SCDF; the impact of structure failure is relatively small; the contribution of the annual occurrence frequency of ground motion parameter to SCDF needs to be specifically analyzed according to the location of the project site.