基于模糊综合评判和层次分析法的中子管故障风险评估

中子管是一种用途广泛的关键部件，然而目前国产中子管的可靠性水平与国外相比还有一定差距，难以满足各行业的使用需求。本文分析了中子管的主要故障模式，采用模糊综合评判和层次分析法对中子管故障进行了多级模糊综合评判，并对中子管故障风险进行了评估。结果表明，中子管总体故障风险水平中等，故障风险前3位的部件为靶、氘氚储存器和加速极，在设计和使用中应重点关注靶释放氦气，靶膜氧化，氘氚储存器吸气剂局部破损，绝缘瓷管破损，加速极离子加速、聚焦不稳定等故障。

Risk Assessment of Neutron Tube Failure Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation and Analytic Hierarchy Process

The neutron tube is a key component with a wide range of use. However, the reliability level of domestic neutron tube is still far from that of foreign countries, and it is difficult to meet the need of various industries. In this paper, the main failure mode of neutron tube was analyzed. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process were used to evaluate the neutron tube failure in multiple stages, and the risk of neutron tube failure was evaluated. The results show that the overall risk of neutron tube failure is medium, and the top three components of failure risk are target, D-T storage and acceleration pole. The focus on the failure modes, such as target helium release, target membrane oxidation, partial damage of the D-T storage, porcelain tube break, unstable accelerating and focusing of the acceleration pole, should be paid during design and use.