城市化2.0与规划转型——一个两阶段模型的解释

城市化和任何现代商业模式一样,都分为"积累"和"生产"两个阶段。前者需要把未来的收益流贴现过来形成资本,后者需要把形成的资产还原为真实的收益流。由于积累和生产收益模式的不同,当城市化从1.0转向2.0时,会出现"现金流缺口"。由于资本和现金流存在不可替代性——资本收益只能用于资本性投资,运营性支出只能由现金流覆盖——怎样创造足够的现金流,就成为城市化1.0能否成功转向2.0的关键。存量规划的核心,就是将已经形成的资产转化为现金流。

URBANIZATION 2.0 AND TRANSITION OF PLANNING: EXPLANATION BASED ON A TWO-PHASE MODEL

As the other modem business models,urbanization can be divided into two phases:"accumulation" and "production." The former phase focuses on capitalizing the future benefits,and the latter on revivifying the assets into cash flow.Due to the non-substitutability between the accumulation and production benefits patterns,a "cash flow gap" appears when urbanization 1.0 transits toward 2.0.And since the capital and cash flow are irreplaceable — capital benefit can only be used on capital investment and operational expenditure can only be covered by cash flow — how to create sufficient cash flow becomes the key of a successful urbanization transition.And the center of inventory planning is to transit the already existed assets into cash flow.