Probabilistic Modelling in the Water Industry

The water authorities in England and Wales, which have now become water companies, recently had to provide anticipated costs for maintaining the water supply and sewerage systems over the next 20 years. Probabilistic models and statistical inference provide an opportunity to quantify the uncertainty in such exercises. Their use in a study undertaken by a water authority in the north-east of England is described and illustrated with interim data which were available at an early stage in the exercise.