滑坡空间预测中信息量模型的改进及应用

确定未来可能发生滑坡的区域,即滑坡空间预测对城乡土地规划具有重要的指导意义.针对国内在滑坡空间预测中应用较多的信息量模型,通过理论推导表明其使用前提是各影响因素相互独立,以一简单算例说明了在滑坡空间预测中因素间相关性对预测结果的影响,并建议引入因子分析评估和减少各因素间的相关性.将基于因子分析的信息量模型应用于某一流域...

Improved Information Value Model and Its Application in the Spatial Prediction of Landslides

Information Value Model is used frequently in domestic landslide hazard zonation prediction, which plays a very important role for land-use planning especially in mountain area. Through theoretical analysis, the prerequisite of Information Value Model which should be used with influence-factors independent from each other is studied. Factor Analysis is adopted to evaluate and eliminate the influence of correlation between influence-factors in spatial prediction of landslides which are showed through case study. Relationships between landslides and influence-factors are studied based on a certain watershed in which the Information Value Model and Factor Analysis are applied. The probability of landslides changes regularly with the influence-factors, and based on which a method for the discretization of influence-factors is advised. The distribution of landslide susceptibility of above watershed is calculated and validated based on the area-ratio index with landslides occurring in nearly 5 years, which proves the credibility of Information Value Model.