房地产企业财务危机预警实证研究

房地产企业财务危机预警管理能力在企业经营活动风险控制中占据重要位置。建立在我国上市公司财务数据具有高相关性和高维性等特点之上，提出了基于主成分分析与 Logistic 分析相结合的危机预警方法。运用逻辑回归分析方法，得到影响房地产企业财务能力的 6 个主成分综合因子，构建科学合理的房地产企业财务危机预警决策模型。实证研究结果表明:该模型能够最大限度减少变量信息丢失情况下实现多变量的降维处理，同时解决原始数据各变量之间彼此高度相关的不足，对于预测企业经营失效与否具有很好的识别预警和推广能力，为我国上市房地产企业制定后期发展战略决策提供有效参考。

An Empirical Study on Early Warning for Financial CrisisManagement in Real Estate Enterprises

As an important force to promote China’s economic and social development，the real estate industry has developedrapidly，and the capability of financial crisis early warning management capability plays an important role in the risk control ofbusiness operations. Therefore，based on the high correlation and high dimensionality of financial data of listed companies in China，this paper proposes a crisis early warning method based on principal component analysis and logistic analysis. Before using logisticregression analysis，principal component analysis is used to achieve the purpose of dimension reduction processing while retainingthe original financial data information to the utmost. Using logistic regression analysis method，the six principal componentcomprehensive factors affecting the financial ability of real estate enterprises are obtained，and a scientific and reasonable financialcrisis early warning decision model for real estate enterprises is constructed. The empirical results show that the model can achievemultivariate dimensionality reduction processing while minimizing the loss of variable information，and at the same time solve theproblem that the variables of the original data are highly correlated with each other，and it is very good for predicting the failure ofenterprise operation. The identification，early warning and promotion capabilities provide an effective reference for the formulationof late-stage development strategies for listed real estate companies in China.