基于系统动力学的公共投资项目绩效评价实证

为了探索公共投资项目绩效的影响因素，提高公共投资项目绩效水平。以《预算绩效评价共性指标体系框架》为基础，建立公共投资项目绩效评价指标体系，使用系统动力学方法建立模型，分析了绩效评价体系中三级指标间的相互影响关系。采用实证研究方式，选取 27 个公共投资项目作为样本进行绩效评价并对结果进行分析，辨识了公共投资项目管理过程中存在的普遍性问题，如立项规范性不足等；低分项目典型特征，如制度执行有效性差等。选取一个市政道路项目进行了实例验证，并对公共投资项目的管理及评价提出了一些建议。

An Empirical Study of Performance Evaluation of Public ProjectsBased on System Dynamics

This study explores the main factors influencing public project performance so as to improve the performance level ofthis type of projects. An index system for evaluating public project performance has been established in this paper based on “budgetperformance evaluation framework”. The theory of system dynamics has been applied to analyze the interactional relationshipsamong three levels of indicators. The empirical analysis of 27 public projects（regarding their performance evaluation）reveals thecommon problems during the project management process（e.g. lacking standardization of project establishment）and the typicalfeatures of low-performance projects（e.g. poor implementation efficiency，etc.）. A municipal transportation project is selected toverify the model established. The paper also provides suggestions to improve the performance of public projects.