基于多代理人模拟的上海市域零售业中心体系研究

在上海市域人口向郊区疏解的背景下，零售业空间随之重构。应用基于多代理人模拟技术的零售业空间结构模拟系统，模拟消费者与商业中心之间的互动，并呈现商业中心体系的空间布局，为市域商业体系规划提供新的方法和思路。对2000年上海市域零售业中心体系进行实证，检验了模拟系统对实际、大规模零售业中心体系的解释和再现能力，获得关键模型参数。在此基础上，推演上海未来可能情景下的零售业中心体系。发现市级中心以及地区级中心发展的重点分别位于中心城区和郊区，北外滩、世纪大道具有成为顶级市级中心的潜力，有考虑网购影响的必要性。

Research on the Retail Center System of Shanghai Using Multi-agent Simulation

In the context of Shanghai transferring its population into rural areas, the retail space is being re-constructed accordingly. The paper applies a retail center simulation system based on multi-agent simulation technology, which simulates the interactions between consumers and commercial centers, to provide new methods and ways of thinking to the commercial system planning of Shanghai. An empirical study on the retail center system of Shanghai in 2000 is carried out to validate the applicability of the simulation system to explain and replicate real-world, large-scale retail center systems and derive the key model parameters. The calibrated simulation system is further applied to predict the future retail center system of Shanghai under several possible scenarios, which finds that the municipality-level centers will be mainly developed in the central city, while the local centers will be mainly developed in the rural areas, the North Bund and Millennium Avenue have the potential to become the top municipality-level centers, and it＇s necessary to take the influence of internet shopping into account.