产业结构、能效及一次能源构成对能源强度的影响分析

一个国家的能源强度ε主要取决于其产业结构、一次能源构成和能源利用效率3个因素．对这3个因素与能源强度之间的关系进行定量分析，以期寻找一种新的研究分析的方法。首先定义一个新的参数——有效能源强度ε′，它是能源强度与能效之积。产业结构转型对能源强度影响显著，在能效36．81％和2006年各产业能源强度不变的前提下，若中国第三产业占GDP的比率从39％增至70％，能源强度可降低1／3。能效是决定能源强度的重要因素．在上述产业结构转型的基础上，如果中国能效从36．81％提高到50％，则能源强度可再降低25％以上。如果中国能够在2020年实现上述两个目标，则2020年的能源强度有可能降低到0．58t标煤／万元，2005～2020年能源消费弹性系数f为0．30。将能源消费弹性系数f分解成有效能源强度、能效和参数α之积,f正比于有效能源强度降低程度，反比于能效提高程度，产业结构调整和能效对f都有重大影响。中美两国在一次能源构成、终端利用模式和能效方面的对比分析有助于认识我国的节能潜力。一次能源构成转型给中国大幅度提高能效提供了极好的机遇，其主要内涵一是提高天然气占一次能源构成的比例，二是煤炭的CCS利用。

The Influence of Industry Structure,Energy Efficiency and Primary Energy Mix on Energy Intensity

A nation＇s energy intensity e is mainly dictated by three factors,namely the country＇s industry structure,primary energy mix and energy utilization efficiency.In this article,the author conducted a quantitative analysis of the relationship between these three factors and a country＇s energy intensity in the hope of finding an alternative research and analysis method.The author first defined a new parameter-effective energy intensitye＇ ,the product of the country＇s energy intensity and energy efficiency.The transformation of industry structure has a significant influence on a country＇s energy intensity.Assuming China＇s energy efficiency is 36.81% and the energy intensities of all industries remain unchanged,if the share of the tertiary industry in GDP rises to 70% from 39%,China＇s energy intensity could drop by one third.Energy efficiency is an important factor affecting energy intensity.On top of the transformation of industry structure,if China＇s energy efficiency rises to 50% from 36.81%,China＇s energy intensity could drop further by over 25%.If China is able to achieve the above two objectives by 2020,the country＇s energy intensity is likely to drop to 0.58t of coal equivalent per 10000 GDP by 2020 and the country＇s energy consumption elasticity coefficient ＂f＂ would be 0.30 from 2005 to 2020.Break the energy consumption elasticity coefficient ＂f＇ down into the product of effective energy intensity ,energy efficiency and parameter α.＂f＇ is in direct proportion to the drop of effective energy intensity and in inverse proportion to the increase of energy efficiency.Both the adjustment to industry structure and energy efficiency have a significant influence on ＂f＇.The comparison between the primary energy mixes ,the modes of end use and energy efficieneies of China and the United States can help us understand China＇s potential for raising energy efficiency.The adjustment to the primary energy mix has provided a very good opportunity for China significantly raising its energy efficiency.The main contents of this adjustment are raising the share of natural gas in China＇s primary energy mix and optimizing the use of coal by means of carbon capture and storage （CCS）.