基于GDP-电能消费耦合关系的中长期电量预测

建立了一种基于用电量和GDP之间耦合关系的中长期电量预测模型。首先利用协整检验和格兰杰（Granger）因果检验，剖析电能消费和经济发展之间的协整关系和因果关系，并建立中长期电量预测模型。然后采用误差修正方法对预测模型进行短期调节，以提高模型的鲁棒性以及预测精度。以某地区1991—2015年的用电量和GDP数据作为算例输入数据，结果表明：通过构建电能消费和经济发展之间的耦合关系，有助于提高预测模型的解释能力，同时含短期调节的中长期用电量预测模型具有更高的预测精度。

Medium and Long Term Electricity Forecasting Based on GDP-Electricity Consumption Coupling Relationship

In this paper, a medium and long term electricity forecasting model based on the coupling relationship is established. First, the co-integration test and Granger causality test are used to analyze the co-integration and causality relationship between energy consumption and economic development, and the medium-and long-term electricity forecasting model is built. Second, the error correction method is used to adjust the prediction model in short term to improve the robustness and prediction accuracy of the model. The electricity consumption and GDP data of a certain region from 1991 to 2015 are taken as the example input data. The results show that the medium-and long-term electricity consumption forecasting model with coupling relationship between electricity consumption and economic development has higher forecasting ability, and the model with short-term regulation has higher forecasting accuracy.