优化的灰色拓扑模型在年径流预测中的应用

由于河川径流具有变化剧烈、波动频繁的特点,采用常规水文预报方法的预测效果较差。为此引进灰色拓扑方法,在优化原始GM(1,1)模型的基础上,通过改进拓扑预测的矛盾点筛选方法,建立了优化的灰色拓扑预测模型群,对梨园河流域的实测年径流序列进行模拟和预测,发现所建模型的拟合曲线与实测序列的变化趋势一致,比传统的灰色拓扑方法具有更高的精度。结果表明,改进的灰色拓扑模型能够有效克服振荡序列的非线性影响,可作为研究区域的径流预报和水资源分析的参考依据。

Application of Improved Grey Topological Model in Prediction of Annual Runoff

Due to the severe change and frequent fluctuations of runoff, the prediction effect of conventional hydrological forecasting methods is poor. Based on optimizing the original grey model GM(1,1), this paper introduced grey topological prediction method, and by improving the method of selecting contradictory values, a series of optimized grey topological models were established to fit and forecast the annual runoff of the Liyuanhe River. After comparison, the fitting curve of the new model was consistent with the trend of the measured sequence, and the precision of which was higher than the traditional one. It can overcome the nonlinear effects of the oscillation series effectively, which provides scientific basis for runoff forecasting and analysis of regional water resources in Liyuanhe basin.