基于等效原理的水库群实时防洪联合调度模型研究

针对水库群规模大导致水库群联合调度模型求解困难、交互决策难以聚焦的问题，提出了基于等效原理减少联合调度模型水库数的新思路，即将水库群全集划分为显效水库和非显效水库子集，对显效水库开展联合补偿调度，非显效水库作为被补偿对象单库调度；并建立水库群分组指标体系和分组方法，由此构建了显效水库联合调度和非显效水库单独调度的混合调度模型。在钱塘江7库的应用显示，构造的指标体系和分组方法可较合理地识别出显效水库集，在参与联合调度的水库数量减少60%的情况下断面防洪效果相近，研究结果可为更大规模水库群联合调度提供参考。

Study on Modeling for Real-time Joint Flood Control Operation of Multi-reservoir System Based on Equivalent Principle

Large scale of multi-reservoir system leads to the complexity and difficulty in modeling, solving, and decision-making with interaction from managers. This study proposed a new method for reduction of calculation complexity based on the equivalent principle for a multi-reservoir system, which divided reservoirs into "effective reservoirs" and "ineffective reservoirs". The joint compensative operation is conducted in effective reservoirs and ineffective reservoirs, which act as compensated objects. Then, indices and methods for grouping subsystem of reservoirs were proposed and the mixed operation method for multi-reservoir system was established. The case study in Qiantang River demonstrates that the proposed methodology could reasonably identify effective reservoirs. Even number of reservoirs participating in the operation is reduced by 60%, the performance is similar to that of the complete system. This result could provide useful guidance for joint operation of the large-scale multi-reservoir system.