新疆石河子市近51年蒸发量变化特征分析

为分析新疆石河子市水面蒸发变化的特征,研究了新疆石河子市1964~2014年的水面蒸发量特点,发现石河子市51年间蒸发量呈减小趋势,1980年代中后期蒸发开始进入明显下降阶段;51年间石河子市蒸发量季节变化特征为春、夏、秋三季下降、冬季上升的趋势,其中夏季下降最为明显,冬季上升趋势微弱;2002年石河子市蒸发量发生由多到少的突变,且在51年的时间尺度上石河子市年蒸发皿蒸发量存在约18年的年代际周期,在该时间尺度上经历了3个偏少期和3个偏多期;由于2014年其小波系数等值线未闭合,由此推测2014年后的几年内石河子市年蒸发量仍可能处于相对低值区;关联分析表明气温、风速是影响该地区蒸发的主要因子。

Variation Characteristics of Evaporation in Shihezi of Xinjiang in Recent 51 Years

In order to analyze the characteristics of evaporation in Shihezi of Xinjiang, this paper studied the water surface evaporation characteristics during 1964-2014. The evaporation appears a decreasing trend during the recent 51 years in Shihezi City. The seasonal variation characteristics of evaporation in Shihezi during 51 years show downward trend in spring, summer and autumn while appearing upward trend in winter. The sudden change of evaporation is changed from more to less in 2002. At the 51 years scale, the evaporation of Shihezi has an annual period of about 18 years. There are 3 partial more and 3 partial less periods. Due to the wavelet coefficients contour not closing in 2014, it can be speculated that the evaporation of Shihezi may remain at a low value in a few years after 2014. Association analysis shows that temperature and wind speed are the main factors for influencing the evaporation in Shihezi.