1958～2017年右江出口径流量演变特征分析

为了分析右江1958~2017年出口径流量演变特征，选用线性趋势法、累积平距法、Morlet小波分析法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法等多种方法，从全年、汛期、枯水期三种情况分析了右江出口径流量的变化趋势性、周期性、突变性等特点，并探讨了不同情况演变特征差异的原因、水利枢纽建设的影响、近期变化的趋势。结果表明，年均径流量和汛期平均径流量序列整体呈下降趋势，枯水期平均流量序列整体呈上升趋势；年均径流量和汛期平均径流量序列第一主周期均为37年，枯水期平均径流量序列第一主周期为10年；由于金鸡滩水利枢纽施工建设，年均径流量序列在2004~2007年持续突变，汛期平均径流量序列在2007年发生突变，枯水期平均径流量未发生突变；三种情况演变特征存在差异性主要原因是人类对径流量的利用主要在枯水期；近期年均径流量将继续处于偏多状态，汛期平均径流量将由偏少状态转为偏多状态，枯水期平均径流量将持续保持偏少状态。

Analysis of Runoff Variation Characteristics of Youjiang River from 1958 to 2017

The methods of linear fitting, cumulative anomaly, Morlet wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation test were used to study runoff variation characteristics of Youjiang River during 1958-2017. The runoff characteristics of trend, periodicity and mutability were discussed from three aspects of the whole year, flood season and dry season. The reasons for the difference of evolution characteristics at different conditions, the influence of water-control project construction and the trend of recent changes were analyzed. The results reveals that the average annual runoff and average flood season runoff series were decreasing while the average dry season runoff series were increasing; The first main cycle of the average annual runoff and average flood season runoff series was 37a, and the first main cycle of the average dry season runoff series was 10a; Due to the construction of Jinjitan water-control project, the average annual runoff series continuously appeared the sudden change trend from 2004 to 2007, the average flood season runoff series appeared the sudden change trend in 2007, and the average runoff in dry season did not appeared the sudden change trend; The main reason for the difference in the evolution characteristics of the three aspects is that the utilization of runoff is mainly in the dry season. The average annual runoff in flood season will change from less to more, and the average runoff in dry season will keep less.