基于混合蛙跳与投影寻踪模型的水资源系统脆弱性评价

研究水资源系统脆弱性有助于水资源可持续利用的实现,结合驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应(DPSIR)框架构建了水资源系统脆弱性评价指标体系,利用混合蛙跳算法和投影寻踪方法建立了基于混合蛙跳和投影寻踪的水资源系统脆弱性评价模型,以山东省滕州市为研究区,分别从驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应5个方面及系统整体进行了水资源系统脆弱性评价,并以模型计算的投影值作为衡量系统脆弱程度的依据。结果表明,该区2008年水资源系统指标体系各方面与整体均处于脆弱性中等范围,其中水资源供需矛盾不断加剧及水资源开发利用条件薄弱导致影响、状态两方面脆弱性程度较高,依靠科技进步措施使得响应类指标对脆弱性影响程度较低,与实际情况相符,可见该模型评价结果可行、有效。

Assessment of Water Resources System Vulnerability Based on Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithm and Projection Pursuit Model

Research on water resources system vulnerability is helpful to realization of water resources sustainable utilization. The DPSIR framework of driving-forces-pressures-states-impacts-responses was adopted to construct the evaluation index system of water resources system vulnerability. And then the shuffled frog leaping algorithm and projection pursuit was used to establish assessment model of water resources system vulnerability. Tengzhou City in Shandong Province was selected as an research area. The system vulnerability was analyzed in terms of driving forces, pressures, states, impacts, and responses on the basis of the projection value calculated by the model. The results show that the water resources system of research area was in the medium vulnerability range in 2008; the degree of vulnerability caused by the index of impacts and state were higher than others because of the fierce imbalance between supply-demand of water resources and the weakness condition of water resources utilization, while the index of responses had less impact. The results of model are coincident with the state of water resources in research area, which indicate that the model is feasible and effective.