| 白山水库径流中长期预报研究与应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 张利平,王德智,夏军.白山水库径流中长期预报研究与应用[J].水电能源科学,2002,20(1):18-20. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张利平 王德智 夏军 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学,水利水电学院,湖北,武汉,430072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国电东北公司调度自动化系统工程资助项目 (990 0 1 ) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于时间序列和物理成因分析，将成因分析，统计方法与人工神经网络相结合，挑选出影响白山水库汛期入库流量的前期大气流影响因子，建立了逐步周期分析模型和逐步多元回归与人工神经网络的耦合模型。预报实践表明，所建模型合理，预报效果好，精度高，具有较高的推广和应用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 水文预报 逐步回归 神经网络 径流 中长期预报 白山水库 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-7709(2002)01-0018-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年11月5日 |
Research and Application on Medium-term and Long-term Runoff Forecast of Baishan Reservoir |
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| ZHANG Li,ping,WANG De,zhi,XIA Jun.Research and Application on Medium-term and Long-term Runoff Forecast of Baishan Reservoir[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2002,20(1):18-20. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Li ping WANG De zhi XIA Jun |
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| Abstract: | With the application of time series and contributing factors analysis method, a model of successive regression period analysis and a coupled model of successive regression and neural network for medium term and long term runoff forecast have been set up by organically combining cause and effect and statistical analysis with neural network. The result of calculation shows that the models are highly effective and are worth popularization and application. |
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| Keywords: | hydrological forecasting successive regression neural network runoff |
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