济宁市用水结构分析及预测

为了解中国北方地区的用水结构,选取济宁市为典型城市,根据2005~2014年济宁市的用水数据,运用信息熵、洛伦茨曲线和基尼系数的方法分析了济宁市用水结构变化,并利用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测了2015~2024年济宁市用水结构未来的发展趋势。结果表明,2005~2008年总用水量年均增长5%,2009~2014年总用水量年均减少2.58%,其中,农业用水所占比例最大,约为79.95%;2005~2014年济宁市用水结构的信息熵由0.643 4 nat增长到0.727 6 nat,均衡性和稳定性不断提高;按用水类型的空间分布差异性,由小到大依次为农业、生活、工业、生态;2015~2024年的预测结果与现状相似,即用水结构朝着均衡、稳定的方向发展,空间分布的差异性逐渐缩小,但仍需进一步优化。

Analysis and Prediction of Water Utilization Structure of Jining City

In order to understand the water utilization structure of northern China, this paper took Jining City as a typical city. Based on the water utilization data of Jining in the period of 2005~2014, the changes of the water utilization structure as well as its development trend from 2015 to 2024 predicted by GM(1,1) model were analyzed through information entropy, Lorenz curve and Gini coefficients. The results show that the total water use increased about 5% per year from 2005 to 2008, and decreased about 2.58% per year from 2009 to 2014. The agricultural water use accounted for approximately 79.95%, the most of the total water use during ten years. The information entropy of the water utilization structure increased from 0.643 4 nat to 0.727 6 nat, which indicated its equilibrium and stability improved in the period of 2005~2014. According to the spatial variability of water use types from small to large, they were water utilization of agricultural, domestic, industrial and ecological. The predicted results show that the water utilization structure developed towards a better direction and spatial variability would decrease gradually from 2015 to 2024, which were similar with current situation. However, the water utilization structure still needs to be further optimized.