| 武汉市区近59 a降水变化趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王丽红.武汉市区近59 a降水变化趋势分析[J].水电能源科学,2010,28(12). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王丽红 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖北省水利水电职业技术学院;天津大学建筑工程学院; |
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| 摘 要： | 以武汉市区为例,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法与R/S分析法研究了1951～2009年月降水序列、年降水序列特征及趋势检验,并预测了未来降水量.结果表明,月降水序列中1、2、7、11月呈上升趋势,仅1、3月变化趋势显著;年降水序列上升趋势不明显,降水时间序列具有分形特征和长程相关性,可为降水中长期预测和水资源合理利用提供参考.
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| 关 键 词： | Mann-Kendall趋势分析法 R/S分析法 降水序列 分形特征 武汉市区 |
Long-term Trend of Precipitation in Wuhan City during Past 59 Years |
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| WANG Lihong.Long-term Trend of Precipitation in Wuhan City during Past 59 Years[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2010,28(12). |
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| Authors: | WANG Lihong |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Lihong1,2(1.Hubei Water Resources Technical College,Wuhan 430072,China,2.School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,the Mann-Kendall trend and rescaled range analysis(R/S) method are adopted to study the characteristics and trend of monthly and annual precipitation series from 1951 to 2009 years in Wuhan City area.And then the future precipitation is forecasted.The results show that the series of monthly precipitation have increased in January,February,July and November;the change trends are significant only in January and March;the series of annual precipitation has increased but not obvious,which has frac... |
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| Keywords: | Mann-Kendall trend analysis rescaled range analysis series of precipitation fractal property Wuhan City area |
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