基于博弈分析的流域水资源配置

针对传统规划方法难以体现水资源配置过程中多种复杂因素的问题,基于博弈理论建立宏观调控和市场经济相结合的水资源配置动态博弈模型,求解其子博弈精炼纳什均衡下各博弈参与人的策略,并运用改进量子遗传算法求解该博弈模型。对A河流域水资源配置结果表明,在保证流域公共生态用水2.0×10~8 m~3的基础上,各用水子区自发约束自身的取水量,达到均衡时,社会总收益为11.27亿元,相比自由取水模型,社会总收益增加了0.95亿元,增幅为9.2%。

Optimal Allocation of Water Resources Based on Game Analysis

The traditional planning method is difficult to reflect the complex factors in the process of water resource allocation. In this paper, a dynamic game model of water resources allocation was established by considering macro-regulation and market economy. And the strategy of the sub-game refined Nash equilibrium was put forward. The improved quantum genetic algorithm was used to solve the proposed model. The game analysis model was applied to A river basin. The results indicate when the equilibrium is reached, the total social income is 1.127 billion yuan on the basis of ensuring the total public ecological water 200 million cubic meters. Compared with free water-taken model, the total social income increases 95 million yuan and the increasing amplitude reaches 9.2%.