| 灰色自记忆模型在杭州市年降水量序列中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 袁月平,黄燕.灰色自记忆模型在杭州市年降水量序列中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2010,28(8). |
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| 作者姓名： | 袁月平 黄燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 青岛市水文水资源勘测局,山东,青岛,266071
2. 河海大学,水文水资源学院,江苏,南京,210098 |
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| 摘 要： | 将灰色微分方程与自记忆函数相结合构建灰色自记忆模型,并对杭州市年降水量序列进行拟舍和预测,采用逐步回归周期分析法提取该序列的周期项后,再对残差序列建立灰色自记忆模型.结果表明,采用残差序列建立的模型,模拟和预测精度大幅提高.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色 降雨序列 自记忆模型 逐步回归周期分析 |
Application of Gray Self-memory Model to Annual Precipitation Sequence in Hangzhou City |
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| YUAN Yueping,HUANG Yan.Application of Gray Self-memory Model to Annual Precipitation Sequence in Hangzhou City[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2010,28(8). |
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| Authors: | YUAN Yueping HUANG Yan |
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| Affiliation: | YUAN Yueping1 HUANG Yan2 (1.Hydrology and Water Resources Survey of Qingdao,Qingdao 266071,China,2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China) |
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| Abstract: | By combining the grey differential equation with self-memory function,gray self-memory model is established for forecasting and fitting annual precipitation in Hanzhou City.Stepwise regression cycle analysis is applied to extract periodic component of the sequence.And then the gray self-memory model is established with the obtained residual sequence.The results show that the proposed model improves simulation and prediction accuracy greatly. |
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| Keywords: | gray rainfall sequence self-memory model stepwise regression cycle analysis |
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