基于云模型的土石坝渗流安全风险模糊综合评价

针对土石坝渗流安全风险评价指标存在模糊性和随机性的问题,在传统模糊综合评价模型的基础上引入云模型,建立基于云模型的土石坝渗流安全风险模糊综合评价模型。选取渗透坡降等12个指标构建评价指标体系,采用AHP法确定评价指标权重,由安全风险等级和评估数据分别推求标准云和评价云数字特征值,通过计算标准云和综合云的相似度给出评价结果。将该模型应用于已建土石坝工程的渗流安全风险评价中,计算得到综合云与标准云的最大相似度为0.800,进而给出该土石坝渗流安全风险等级为"较低风险",通过与传统模糊综合评价模型对比发现,该模型评价方式更为客观,评价结果更为全面。研究成果可为土石坝安全评价和加固提供参考。

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Earth Rockfill Dam Seepage Security Risk Based on Cloud Model

The evaluation index of earth rockfill dam seepage security risk has characteristics of fuzziness and randomness. To solve the problems, this paper introduced cloud model into fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and a model based cloud model has been established to evaluate the seepage security risk of earth rockfill dam. 12 indexes were chosen to establish evaluation index system, and the weight of evaluation index were calculated by AHP. The eigenvalue of the evaluation cloud was generated from evaluation data, and the standard cloud was generated from safety risk. The evaluation results were given by calculating the similarity between standard cloud and synthetic cloud. The model was applied to the seepage security risk evaluation of a certain earth rockfill dam, and the maximum similarity between the standard and integrated cloud is 0.800, which determines the seepage security risk as "lower risk". Compared with the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the evaluation way of this model is more objective and the evaluation results of this model is more comprehensive. The results of research can provide reference for the safety evaluation and reinforcement of earth rockfill dam.