| 基于系统辨识的地表太阳辐射Box-Jenkins模型的建立 |
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| 引用本文： | 王敏,丁明.基于系统辨识的地表太阳辐射Box-Jenkins模型的建立[J].太阳能学报,2012,33(2):321-326. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王敏 丁明 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 合肥工业大学教育部光伏系统工程研究中心,合肥230009;河海大学能源与电气学院,南京211100
2. 合肥工业大学教育部光伏系统工程研究中心,合肥,230009 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目(50837001);国家高技术研究发展(863)计划(2007AA05Z240);国家重点基础研究发展(973)计划(2009CB219700);安徽省高等学校青年教师科研资助计划自然科学项目(050408F) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用天文辐射作为输入数据,采用系统辨识的方法得到地表太阳辐射的BJ(Box-Jenkins)模型,并通过残差分析和零极点检验。该方法可用于预测5～15min时间间隔的地表太阳辐射,为太阳能电站的功率输出预测提供太阳能辐射数据。
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| 关 键 词： | 地表太阳能辐射 系统辨识 Box-Jenkins模型 残差 极点和零点 |
ESTABLISHMENT OF BOX-JENKINS MODEL FOR SURFACE SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION METHOD |
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| Wang Min
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Ding Ming.ESTABLISHMENT OF BOX-JENKINS MODEL FOR SURFACE SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION METHOD[J].Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica,2012,33(2):321-326. |
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| Authors: | Wang Min Ding Ming |
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| Affiliation: | 1(1.Research Center for Photovoltaic System Engineering Ministry of Education,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009; 2.College of Energy and Electrical Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China) |
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| Abstract: | Astronomical radiation as the input data,the BJ(Box-Jenkins) model for surface solar radiation was established using system identification method.The model was affirmed to be workable by residual analysis and zero-pole test.This method can be used to predict the surface solar radiation of 5~15 minutes time interval,the prediction results can provide solar radiation data for power output forecast of solar PV power plants. |
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| Keywords: | surface solar radiation system identification Box-Jenkins model residual error poles and zeros |
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