证据理论在热保护火工品高温安全性评估中的应用

为了评估热保护火工品的高温安全性,根据假设的装药和保护结构失效温度分布及温升历程模型,建立了热保护火工品的安全性分析模型.采用证据理论中的专家判断方法处理模型参数确定中的不确定性问题,基于专家判断获得的参数区间分布情况,使用随机抽样方法,生成了N组模型参数,完成安全性分析并进行结果的统计表达.分析结果表明,证据理论可以成功用于热保护火工品高温安全性的量化评估.

Application of Evidence Theory to High-temperature Safety Assessment of Heat-protected Initiating Explosive Device

In order to evaluate the safety of heat-protected initiating explosive device in abnormal high-temperature fire environment,based on assumed failure temperature distribution of protected structure and charge,as well as temperature history,a safety analysis model was established.Expert judgment methods was applied to quantification of uncertainty.Based on variable interval distribution obtained from expert judgment,N sets of model variables were created by random sampling,and statistics of safety analysis results was accomplished.It showed that quantification for safety assessment with evidence theory was successful.