潜艇鱼雷发射装置"卡管"事故故障树分析

“卡管”是鱼雷攻击和训练过程中出现的极为恶劣的事故,本文对导致事故的原因进行了分析。由于试验数据和训练数据有限,传统的故障树分析难以对“卡管”事故原因及出现概率做出准确评价。本文通过采用模糊故障树分析法,建立了该系统的模糊故障树,对事故概率及原因进行了定量及定性分析,为部队装备管理、人员管理和维修决策等工作提供理论依据。

Fault Tree Analysis of Locking Accident of Submarine Torpedo Tube

The accident that torpedo is locked in launcher is awful during wartime or training. The reasons of the fault are analyzed. Because of the limitation of test and training data, the traditional fault tree analysis (FTA) method cannot provide accurate diagnosis. This paper adopts the fuzzy FTA method to set up a fuzzy fault tree of this system and to analyzed fault probability and reasons both quantitatively and qualitatively. The results can be expected to provide a theoretical basis for the force equipment and personnel management, and maintenance decision-making.