| 基于多元风险概率模型的舰炮武器研制进度风脸分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 田新广,邱志明,段洣毅.基于多元风险概率模型的舰炮武器研制进度风脸分析[J].兵工学报,2008,29(5):521-525. |
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| 作者姓名： | 田新广 邱志明 段洣毅 |
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| 作者单位： | 1．海军装备研究院博士后工作站，北京100073;2．北京交通大学计算技术研究所，北京100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)，国防科研项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对舰炮武器系统研制工程进度的风险分布特征，建立了基于多元风险概率的进度风险分析模型，给出了基于正态分布和指数分布的进度风险估算方法，并结合具体风险因素分析了舰炮武器系统研制进度风险评估的指标和准则，最后给出某型大口径舰炮研制的风险分析实例，验证了文中方法的有效性和可靠性。
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| 关 键 词： | 系统评估与可行性分析 进度风险 舰炮 风险分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-1093(2008)05-0521-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年2月6日 |
Progress Risk Analysis of Naval Gun Development Based on Multiple Risk Probability Models |
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| TIAN Xin-guang,QIU Zhi-ming,DUAN Mi-yi.Progress Risk Analysis of Naval Gun Development Based on Multiple Risk Probability Models[J].Acta Armamentarii,2008,29(5):521-525. |
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| Authors: | TIAN Xin-guang QIU Zhi-ming DUAN Mi-yi |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Postdoctoral Working Station, Navy Equipment Academy, Beijing 100073, China;
2. Institute of Computer Technology，Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100029,China |
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| Abstract: | A model for progress risk analysis based on multiple risk probability was constructed accord?ing to the risk distribution characteristics of naval gun system development. A risk evaluation method based on normal and exponential distribution was presented, which is more objective and accurate than traditional methods. The index and criterion for progress risk evaluation were analyzed in terms of practical risk factors. The efficiency and reliability of the method were verified through actual exam?ples. |
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| Keywords: | analysis on system assessment and feasibility progress risk naval gun risk analysis |
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