基于MC 仿真的系统可靠性建模分析

为解决复杂系统可靠性建模分析方法问题，提出一种利用MC(Monte-Carlo)仿真模拟系统可靠性建模分 析方法。生成符合要求的单元失效数据样本，依据单元失效与系统失效的逻辑关系开展系统级虚拟试验，获得系统 失效仿真数据，并对其进行统计分析得到系统可靠性指标；利用Simulink 对MC 方法进行模块化实现，建立图形化 可靠性建模分析仿真工具包。通过各种算例对上述方法的有效性进行验证，结果表明：基于MC 仿真的系统可靠性 建模分析方法精度与理论结果相当，且基于Simulink 实现了图形化工具包，便于在复杂系统可靠性建模和分析中实 际应用。

Analysis of System Reliability Modeling Based on MC Simulation

In order to solve the problem of complex system reliability modeling and analysis method, a reliability modeling and analysis method based on MC (Monte-Carlo) simulation is proposed. The unit failure data samples meeting the requirements are generated, and the system-level virtual test is carried out according to the logical relationship between unit failure and system failure to obtain the system failure simulation data, and the system reliability index is obtained by statistical analysis of the system failure simulation data. The MC method is modularized by Simulink to establish a graphical reliability modeling and analysis simulation toolkit. The effectiveness of the above method is verified by various examples, and the results show that the accuracy of the system reliability modeling and analysis method based on MC simulation is equivalent to the theoretical results, and the graphical toolkit based on Simulink is realized, which is convenient for practical application in the reliability modeling and analysis of complex systems.