中美贸易关系的演进、影响与我国企业的应对

自中美贸易冲突正式爆发以来,中美贸易冲突对我国经济发展影响几何、我国如何应对成为学者以及各行业关注的重心。此次中美贸易进程显示,中美贸易冲突的实质是全球治理中的大国博弈。美国试图通过加征关税和对个别企业采取限制措施等手段,压制中国在高新技术和精密制造等领域的崛起。我们分析发现,中美贸易冲突对我国宏观经济运行的一般均衡影响相对有限,虽然贸易冲突造成了中国对美出口的下滑,但我国对欧盟、东盟等地区出口的拉动抵消了一定的负面影响。同时,中美贸易冲突并未对我国整体的失业、通胀带来显著影响。尽管如此,中美贸易冲突却给我国企业面临的营商环境带来了显著影响。具体来说,美国通过对中国实施技术封锁影响了企业进一步的创新升级,通过阻碍中美正常的人才培养和交流限制了高层次人才交流渠道,这些都带来了营商环境的变化。而营商环境的改变不仅会降低企业的技术进步,影响企业的人才引进,还会收紧企业的融资约束并为市场与政策带来较大的不确定性。由此企业应以我为主,加强创新,促进技术进步;完善产品与服务,拓宽市场,扩大贸易伙伴范围;做好风控,积极进行实体投资,转变增长方式;把握机遇,响应政策号召,推动自身的转型升级。

Evolution and Impact of the Sino-US Trade Relations and the Counter Measures by Enterprises in China

Since the outbreak of the Sino-US trade conflict in April 2018,its scale of influence and the necessary counter measures have been the focus of attention among professionals,academics and other sectors as well.The gradual process of the Sino-US trade conflict this time shows that it is actually the superpower games against the background of global governance.The US side attempts to suppress the rise of China in the areas of high and new technologies as well as the precision manufacturing industry by means of levying high tariffs on Chinese goods and effecting restrictive measures on certain Chinese enterprises.The analysis reported in this paper reveals that the ongoing Sino-US trade conflict only has relatively limited impact on the general situation of the macro economic operations in China.This is because of the fact that while the trade conflict has caused declines in the Chinese exports to the US,the Chinese exports to the EU and ASEAN regions have,however,risen to partially offset the negative impact.In the meantime,no significant impact of the trade conflict has so far been found on the general state of affairs in unemployment or inflation in our country.On the other hand,notable impact has,unfortunately,been reported on the business environment faced by the Chinese enterprises.For example,their further innovation and upgrading have been impeded by the US blockade on technology transfer to China,and the exchange channels for high level professionals have been narrowed down by the US hindrance on the regular personnel training and exchange activities between the two countries.These happenings have brought about changes in the business environment,which,in turn,will not only slow down the technological progress of the Chinese enterprises as well as their introduction of external expert personnel,but tighten their constraints in financing and lead to considerable uncertainties in their markets and economic policies as well.The counter measures hence proposed include:strengthening self-reliance by the enterprises and improving innovation to promote technological progress;perfecting their products and services and expanding their markets to develop new trade partnership;performing excellent risk management and control and making active physical investments to seek new modes of growth;and grabbing the opportunities and responding to the government policy appeals to push forward their own transformation and upgrading.