Matching of technological forecasting technique to a technology using fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making methods: Case study from the aerospace industry |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Iran;2. Nasr Bridge, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Postal code: 1417963193. P.O. Box: 14155-6311, Iran;3. Faculty of Engineering and Technology Management, Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA;4. Chaoyang University of Technology, Taiwan;5. Faculty of Civil Engineering, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Sauletekio al. 11, LT-10223, Vilnius, Lithuania;1. Institute of Scientific Research and Graduate School, Universidad de Lima, Lima, Peru;2. Economics and Business Sciences Department, Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal;3. , KEDGE Business School, Marseilles, France |
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| Abstract: | Given the accelerating pace of technological advances and environmental changes, technology-based companies are required to predict and understand future events in their environments. However, there is a wide range of forecasting methods creating confusion on which method to use. This paper demonstrates the selection of an appropriate technique for technology forecasting in the Iran Aviation Industries Organization (IAIO). To this end, a review of the literature was first reviewed to extract the proper criteria for selecting a forecasting method. Next, the SWARA and fuzzy MUTLIMOORA methods were used to evaluate and prioritize a total of twelve forecasting methods proposed for the case study. The results suggested that the Delphi method for technology forecasting in the IAIO. Scenario writing and the relevance tree are the next proper alternatives that can be used. |
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| Keywords: | Technological forecasting SWARA Fuzzy MULTIMOORA Multi-attribute decision-making Aerospace industry Delphi method |
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