考虑乘客不完全理性行为的轨道交通车站应急疏散方法研究

针对突发事件下城市轨道交通车站的客流疏散问题,考虑乘客的不完全理性决策行为,提出基于前景理论的疏散客流分配方法。首先,将车站内部结构网络化为有向图,利用图的深度优先遍历算法求解得到有效路径集合。然后考虑乘客的不完全理性行为,建立基于前景理论的疏散客流分配模型,并利用连续平均法进行求解。最后以成都太升南路地铁站为例,设置应急疏散场景进行模型应用,并利用AnyLogic将基于前景理论的配流结果和基于乘客完全理性的用户均衡配流结果进行仿真对比。结果表明,基于前景理论的客流分配方法得到的配流结果更符合实际应急疏散结果。

An Emergency Evacuation Method of Rail Transit Station Considering Passengers' Incomplete Rational Behavior

For the passenger evacuation problem of urban rail transit stations under emergencies, considering the incomplete rational decision-making behavior of passengers, an evacuation passenger flow assignment method based on prospect theory is proposed. The internal structure of the station is first networked into a directed graph, and the effective path set is obtained by the depth-first-search algorithm in turn. Then, considering the incomplete rational behavior of passengers, an evacuation passenger flow assignment model based on prospect theory is established, and the method of successive averages is used to solve the model. Finally, taking the Chengdu Taisheng South Road subway station as an example, an emergency evacuation scenario is set up for model application, and AnyLogic is used to simulate the distribution results based on the prospect theory, and the distribution results based on the user equilibrium theory, which assumes passengers are completely rational. The results show that the distribution results obtained by the passenger flow assignment method based on the prospect theory are more in line with the actual emergency evacuation results.