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| 基于季节变动模型的网络流量行为预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 魏勍颋,邹宏,肖旻杰.基于季节变动模型的网络流量行为预测[J].计算机与现代化,2006(10):112-113,116. |
| 作者姓名： | 魏勍颋 邹宏 肖旻杰 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南昌大学软件学院,江西,南昌,330029 2. 武警江西总队,江西,南昌,330000 3. 南昌市地税局信息中心,江西,南昌,330029 |
| 摘 要： | 网络的流量行为特征在一定程度上反映了网络运行的某种规律，对流量行为的分析和预测不仅有助于对网络的整体理解，还可为网络管理提供决策支持。本文研究了确定时间序列方法中的季节变动模型，并将其应用于校园网的日流量预测。通过比较实际流量的抽样值和预测值，证明了预测模型具有较高的可信度。 |
| 关 键 词： | 流量行为 预测 时间序列分析 季节变动模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-2475（2006）10-0112-02 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-05-19 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-05-19 |
Forecasting Network Traffic Behavior Based on Seasonal Fluctuant Model |
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| WEI Qing-ting,ZOU Hong,XIAO Min-jie.Forecasting Network Traffic Behavior Based on Seasonal Fluctuant Model[J].Computer and Modernization,2006(10):112-113,116. | |
| Authors: | WEI Qing-ting ZOU Hong XIAO Min-jie |
| Affiliation: | 1. Software College of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330029, China;2. Armed Police Force in Jiangxi, Nanchang China;3. Information Center of Nanehang Local Tax Department, Nanehang 330029, China |
| Abstract: | The characters of network traffic behavior reflect some rules of network running. The analysis and forecast of traffic behavior can not only make it easier to understand network, but also support decision-maklng in managing network. The seasonal fluctuant model of assured time series is studied and applied to forecast daily traffic in campus LKN. After comparing actual traffic samples with forecast result, the forecast model is proved reliable. |
| Keywords: | traffic behavior forecast analysis of time series seasonal fluctuant model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |
