| 基于ARIMA模型的渔业经济预测及其优化 |
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| 引用本文： | 蔡格菁,傅海彬,蒋仁斌,黄斌,张政,张恒.基于ARIMA模型的渔业经济预测及其优化[J].计算机与现代化,2019,0(4):87. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蔡格菁 傅海彬 蒋仁斌 黄斌 张政 张恒 |
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| 作者单位： | 淮海工学院理学院,江苏 连云港,222005;中船重工信息科技有限公司,江苏 连云港,222061 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(61503147)； 江苏省六大人才高峰项目(XYDXX-047)； 连云港市“海燕计划”重点项目（2018-ZD-003， 2018-QD-001， 2018-QD-012）； 淮海工学院优秀本科毕业论文（设计）培育计划（5501006）； 淮海工学院自然科学基金创新基金资助项目（Z2017005） |
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| 摘 要： | 渔业作为国民经济的重要基础之一，对其进行预测十分必要。本文采用时间序列ARIMA模型对渔业总产值进行预测，根据模型预测结果进行误差分析。考虑通货膨胀对预测模型的影响，利用居民消费价格指数（CPI）对模型进行进一步优化。进而以江苏省渔业总产值为例，将1995-2014年的数据作为训练样本，建立模型并结合CPI指数对其优化，以2015-2018年数据作为测试样本，验证了优化模型具有较好的预测效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 渔业总产值 ARIMA模型 CPI指数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-04-30 |
ARIMA Based Fishing Economy Prediction Model and Its Optimization |
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| CAI Ge-jing,FU Hai-bin,JIANG Ren-bin,HUANG Bin,ZHANG Zheng,ZHANG Heng.ARIMA Based Fishing Economy Prediction Model and Its Optimization[J].Computer and Modernization,2019,0(4):87. |
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| Authors: | CAI Ge-jing FU Hai-bin JIANG Ren-bin HUANG Bin ZHANG Zheng ZHANG Heng |
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| Abstract: | As one of the important foundation of national economy, fishery is necessary to forecast. In this paper, the time series ARIMA model is used to predict the total output value of fishery, and the error analysis is made based on the model prediction results. Considering the effect of inflation on the prediction model, the model is optimized by using CPI index. Taking the total fishery output value of Jiangsu province as an example, the data from 1995 to 2014 were taken as training samples, and the model was established and optimized with CPI index. The data from 2015 to 2018 were taken as test samples, the results show that the optimization model had good prediction effect. |
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| Keywords: | total fishery output value ARIMA model CPI index |
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