| 基于ARIMA的电网地磁感应电流预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李小明,王颖,刘春明.基于ARIMA的电网地磁感应电流预测研究[J].计算机与数字工程,2012,40(9):134-136. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李小明 王颖 刘春明 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华北电力大学控制与计算机工程学院 北京 102202
2. 华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院 北京102202 |
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| 摘 要： | 地磁感应电流(GIC)对电网安全运行会带来影响,GIC的分析与预测是近来研究的重点,文中应用ARIMA模型对某一时段内的GIC进行建模分析,挖掘其内在的趋势规律,并运用建立的模型进行短期预测.所建立的模型通过了适应性检验和参数的显著性检验,误差在(8％～21％)范围内,能较好的应用于GIC的预测,为保证电网的安全运行提供理论支持.
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| 关 键 词： | 地磁感应电流 GIC ARIMA 时间序列 预测 |
Short-time Forecasting of GIC in Power Grid Based on ARIMA Model |
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| LI Xiaoming
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WANG Ying
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LIU Chunming.Short-time Forecasting of GIC in Power Grid Based on ARIMA Model[J].Computer and Digital Engineering,2012,40(9):134-136. |
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| Authors: | LI Xiaoming WANG Ying LIU Chunming |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Department of Control and Computer Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102202)(2.Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102202) |
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| Abstract: | At the earth’s surface,space weather processes generate Geomagnetically Induced Currents(GIC) in technological networks.In power networks GIC can cause saturation of transformers,which may even lead to a collapse of the whole network and to damage of transformers.Prediction of GIC could help power networks run steadily through strong geomagnetic disturbances.This paper offers a forecasting technology to model GIC based on ARIMA model,and it was concluded that ARIMA(0,1,(1,2,3,5,6)) can fit better the sample data.Futher to lessen the influence of disasters which caused by GIC in power grid. |
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| Keywords: | geomagnetically Induced currents GIC ARIMA time series forecast |
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