长江水质预测的建模

分析了在长江水质的评价和预测建模过程中出现的一些问题，利用灰色模型的指数特性，建立预测长江水质的GM（1，1）的改进模型。根据数据的周期波动特性，采用灰色系统理论建立了残差序列周期修正GM（1，1）模型，用复合残差来修正预报数据，提高了数据预报的准确程度和模型的适用性。

Modeling of the Prediction of the Quality of the Yangtze River

This paper analyses some of the question exited for the process of modeling which evaluates and predicts the water quality of Yangtze River.Using exponent characteristic of Grey Model GM(1,1),we find the improved Grey model GM(1,1) on forecast of Yangtze river's water quality.According the periodical fluctuation of data,the GM(1,1) model of residual error series with modified period is built up by the Gray System Theory,and the data of prediction is corrected by compound residual error,thus the accuracy and applicability of data prediction model is improved.