夜间灯光数据估算中国省域碳排放与国际碳数据库分配的碳排放比较

快速准确获取省域碳排放数据是实时制定差异化碳减排政策的前提。基于DMSP/OLS和NPP-VIIRS夜间灯光数据，采用统计数据比较法提取1997~2017年中国大陆各省域（不包括西藏）建成区的夜间灯光总值（用TDN表示），并利用1997~2014年各省域的TDN值与同期核算的碳排放量建立各省域碳排放预测模型。然后，以2015~2017年的TDN值为自变量估算中国各省域的碳排放量；同时，利用熵值法和碳排放分配模型将四大国际权威数据库（IEA、EIA、EDGAR和CEADs）发布的中国碳排放量分配至各省；最后，将估算结果与四大典型碳数据库分配的省域碳排放值进行比较。研究表明：估算的省域碳排放量与分配的省域碳排放量大体一致，平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）为6.45%~9.12%，并且基于夜间灯光数据估算的省域碳排放量与IEA和EIA数据库分配的碳排放量更为接近；各省域估算的碳排放量与分配的碳排放量均落在1∶1线附近；单个省域的MAPE值变化在0.68%~14.85%，且多数省域的MAPE值均在10.0%以内。上述结果证明，基于夜间灯光数据通过提取TDN值估算省域碳排放量具有可行性和准确性。

The Accuracy of Nighttime Light Data to Estimate China's Provincial Carbon Emissions: A Comparison with Carbon Emissions Allocated by International Carbon Database

Fast and accurate access to provincial carbon emission data is the premise of real-time development of differentiated carbon emission reduction policies. Based on the DMSP/OLS and NPP-VIIRS night lighting data， the statistical data comparison method was used to extract the total nighttime light value （Expressed by TDN） of provincial built-up area in China's mainland （excluding Tibet） from 1997 to 2017， and the carbon emission prediction models of provinces were established by using the TDN values of 1997 to 2014 and the carbon emissions in the same period. Then， the TDN value from 2015 to 2017 is used as the independent variable to estimate the carbon emissions of China's provinces； at the same time， the total carbon emissions of China published by four international authoritative databases （IEA， EIA， EDGAR and CEADs） are allocated to each province by using entropy method and carbon emission allocation model. Finally， the estimated results are compared with the provincial carbon emission values assigned by four typical carbon databases. The results show that the estimated provincial carbon emissions are generally consistent with the allocated provincial carbon emissions， and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error （MAPE） is only 6.45%~9.12%. Meanwhile， the provincial carbon emissions estimated based on night light data are closer to the carbon emission values assigned by IEA and EIA databases. The estimated and allocated carbon emissions of each province fall near the 1∶1 line； the MAPE value of a single province varies from 0.68% to 14.85%， and the MAPE values of most provinces are within 10.0%. The above results prove the feasibility and accuracy of estimating provincial carbon emissions by extracting TDN values based on night light data.