几种巴斯模型参数估计方法的比较研究

在创新扩散的巴斯模型的基础上,提出了一种新的模型参数估计方法--采用蚁群算法作为巴斯模型参数估计方法.给出了运用蚁群算法思想设计的具体参数估计方法,并以中国移动通信技术的扩散为例,应用巴斯模型对其扩散趋势进行了实证研究,通过对蚁群算法和最小二乘法、遗传算法等传统参数估计方法估计结果的比较分析,得出结论,采用蚁群算法作为巴斯模型的参数估计方法效果更好.最后对中国移动通信技术的扩散趋势进行了预测并提出策略建议.

Comparison and Research of Several Parameter Estimation Approaches of Bass Model--Taking the Diffusion of Mobile Communication Technology in China as an Example

This paper gives a detailed introduction of a new parameter estimation approach of Bass model called Ant Colony Optimization(ACO) which is based on Bass model.As an example,the proliferation of mobile communication technology in China was used to demonstrate this algorithm.The Least Squares method,Genetic Algorithms,and ACO were applied to the mobile communication technology respectively as the parameter estimation approaches and the results were then analyzed and compared.Through the comparison and analysi...