城市轨道交通客流需求分析模型及计算机仿真

针对传统“四阶段法”交通需求分析集聚特征显著、系统环境适应性差等问题以及城市交通系统很难进行实体仿真的缺陷，提出了一种基于城市综合公交统筹和TransCAD仿真的城市轨道交通客流分析模型。该模型基于“四阶段法”基本步骤，在第一阶段中，考虑了不同人口类别的出行强度和空间分布特征，给出了一种基于人口分类和出行目的的发生吸引模型；在交通分布中，引入K-因子和综合行程费用修正重力分布模型；在交通方式划分和分配中，结合合理系统结构边界和出行时间价值，对城市轨道交通客流分配进行精细配流。实验表明：通过对城市人口进行分类，考虑城市交通系统结构和各交通方式的出行广义费用可大大提高客流分析的精度和鲁棒性。

Passenger demand analysis model of urban rail transit and computer simulation

In order to solve the defects in traditional"four-step"methods of transportation demand analysis,such as remarkable centralization characteristic,low accommodation to the system condition and difficult to entity simulation,an effective approach for urban rail transit passenger flow analysis is proposed which is based on the urban comprehensive public transit overall plan and TransCAD simulation.This method is based on the basic step of "four-stage"methods.In the first step,considering the trip intensity and space distribution characteristic of different kinds of people,a new generation and attraction model is established based on population classification and trip motive.In the distribution step,this paper modifies the gravity distribution model through introducing the K-gene and the integrated process cost.In the last step,an assignment model of the urban rail transit passenger flow is built through combining reasonable system structure boundary and trip time value.Experimental results show that the new method can improve the passenger flow analysis precision and robustness,which considers urban transportation system structure,trip generalized cost and population classification.