贝叶斯网络法的电源变电站供电可靠性分析

变电站的可靠性直接影响到电力系统的性能。为此，提出了基于贝叶斯网络法的电源变电站供电可靠性分析方法。首先深入探究供电可靠性的影响因素，定义电源变电站构成单元，构建电源变电站故障树模型，然后分解共因失效组，结合电源变电站整体架构，构建贝叶斯网络模型，应用贝叶斯网络工具箱，计算电源变电站供电可靠性指标值，最后对具体电源变电站供电可靠性进行定量分析。结果表明：在不同工况背景下，本文方法的供电可靠性评估误差小，满足电源变电站的正常供电需求，具有一定的实际应用价值。

Power Supply Reliability Analysis of Power Substation Based on Bayesian Network Method

The reliability of power substation directly affects the performance of power system. Therefore, a power supply reliability analysis method of power substation based on Bayesian network method is proposed. Firstly, the influencing factors of power supply reliability are deeply explored, the constituent units of power substation are defined, the fault tree model of power substation is constructed, then the common cause failure group is decomposed, combined with the overall architecture of power substation, the Bayesian network model is created, and the Bayesian network toolbox is used to calculate the power supply reliability index value of power substation, Finally, the quantitative analysis of power supply reliability of specific power substation is carried out. The results show that under different working conditions, the evaluation error of power supply reliability of this method is small, meets the normal power supply demand of power substation, and has certain practical application value.