基于联系度优化TOPSIS法的区域电能替代潜力评估研究

电能替代是在终端能源消费环节,使用电能替代燃煤、燃油的能源消费方式,对推动能源消费革命,减少大气污染意义重大。为评估各区域电能替代潜力,从社会经济水平、能源消费结构、环保约束、经济性、配套支持5个方面构建了中国区域电能替代潜力评估指标体系,并采用云模型和熵权法相组合的方法来确定各指标的权重,同时,使用联系度优化的TOPSIS(technique for order preference by similarity toan ideal solution)法对各区域的电能替代潜力进行评估。最后应用此指标体系和评估方法对国网管辖区内的25个区域的电能替代潜力进行了评估排名,并在对评估结果进行分析的基础上提出了相应的电能替代推广策略。

Study on Regional Electric Energy Substitution Potential Evaluation Based on TOPSIS Method of Optimized Connection Degree

Electrical energy substitution is a way using electricity to replace scattered coal and fuel oil in terminal energy consumption. It is of great significance to promote energy consumption revolution and reduce atmospheric pollution. In order to assess the potential of electric energy substitution in each region, this paper constructs an evaluation index system of China’s regional electric energy substitution potential from five aspects: socioeconomic level, energy consumption structure, environmental protection constraints, economy, and matched support. Combination of cloud model and entropy weighting method is used to determine the weight of each index. At the same time, TOPSIS(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution) method based on connection degree optimization is used to assess potential for electric energy substitution in each region. Finally, the index system and evaluation methods are used to assess the potential of electric energy substitution in 25 regions under jurisdiction of State Grid. Based on analysis of the evaluation results, corresponding electric energy substitution promotion strategies are proposed.