充裕度计算在电网规划中应用的探讨

充裕度是保障电力系统安全稳定运行、衡量电力系统可靠性的一个重要指标。介绍了评价电力系统充裕度的原则、应用现状及存在的问题。论述了定量衡量系统充裕度在电网规划中的意义。参照IEEE可靠性计算测试系统中的概率数据，建立了用蒙特卡罗算法计算IEEE-30节点可靠性的概率模型。探讨了充裕度概率计算的特点及概率指标在规划中的应用。运用充裕度计算对量化电网建设投资、提高电力系统的可靠性进行了一些尝试，提出了改进的方向。

Application of adequacy calculation in grid planning

The adequacy ensures the security of power system and is an important index of powersystem reliability. The evaluation rules,application status and existing problems of power system adequacy are introduced. The significance of its quantitative evaluation in grid planning is explai-ned. According to the probabilistic data of reliability calculation test system provided by IEEE,a probabilistic model is established to calculate the reliability of an IEEE-30-bus system using Monte Carlo method. The calculation features and the applications of probability index in planning are discussed. Tries are carried out to quantitize the grid investment with adequacy index and improve the power system reliability.