基于Logistic模型的电能替代电量预测

随着电能替代战略的不断推进,电能替代电量规模将不断扩大,对未来电网中长期负荷构成将产生较大影响。现有电网中长期负荷预测方法对电能替代电量的考虑尚不够充分,有必要进行单独的分析预测。文中分析了政策对未来电能替代发展的重要影响作用,并给出了宏观层面电能替代电量的计算方法。在此基础上,基于Logistic模型分别对终端能源消费总量和电能占终端能源消费比例进行预测,在预测过程中充分结合目前已有的相关研究成果,最终获得电能替代电量预测结果。文中模型可作为传统中长期负荷预测方法的补充,用以指导未来电源、电网和相关能源规划。

Forecast of Electric Energy Substitution Based on Logistic Model

As the strategy of electric energy substitution continues to advance,the scale of electric energy substitution will continue to expand,and it will have a great impact on the constitution of the medium and long term power load.The existing medium and long term load forecasting method has not fully considered the electric energy substitution,and it is necessary to carry out a separate analysis.The important impact of the policy on the future development of electric energy substitution is analyzed,and the calculation method of electric energy substitution is given.On the basis of above,based on the Logistic model,the total amount of the terminal energy consumption and the proportion of the electricity in the terminal energy consumption are predicted respectively.In the process of forecasting,the existing research results are fully integrated and the credibility of the forecast results is improved.Finally,the forecast result of electric energy substitution can be obtained.This model can be used as a supplement to traditional medium and long term load forecasting and to guide future power,grid and associated energy planning.