基于模糊综合评判和综合赋权的抗灾型配电网骨干网架规划

根据抗灾型配电网的特点和差异化规划的理念,建立了计及电网安全性、灾况供电可靠性、特级负荷覆盖率、差异化成本和差异化效益的抗灾型中压配电网骨干网架评判模型,提出了一种基于模糊理论、综合赋权和成本效益分析法的抗灾型配电网骨干网架改造决策方法。该方法在选取影响电网抗灾性能的主要因素的基础上,通过高斯隶属函数建立了模糊评判矩阵。同时,利用改进层次分析法(IAHP)和熵权法确定了主客观统一的综合权重,并由模糊综合评判法进行了各配电线路的重要性排序,然后由成本效益分析法确定了最优骨干网架。最后,将该方法应用于南方某地区配电网抗灾骨干网架改造方案决策分析中,案例分析结果验证了所提方法的有效性和实用性。

Decision-making Method for Anti-disaster Distribution Network Backbone Upgrade Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation and Comprehensive Weights

According to the characteristics of anti-disaster medium voltage distribution network and the concept of differential upgrade, an evaluation model for anti-disaster distribution network backbone including grid security, reliability of power supply in disaster, super load coverage, differential cost and differential benefit is developed, and an upgrade decision-making method is proposed based on the fuzzy theory, comprehensive weights and cost benefit analysis. Based on the main factors influencing the anti-disaster performance of distribution network, a fuzzy evaluation matrix is established through the Gaussian membership function. Meanwhile, a subjective and objective unified integrated weight is determined by combining entropy with the improved analytic hierarchical process (IAHP). Furthermore, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is made for sequencing the importance of the schemes. Finally, a cost benefit analysis method is used to determine the best differential upgrade scheme. The feasibility and validity of the proposed method are verified by analysis results of a certain distribution network in South China. This work is supported by China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd.