关于能源转型分析的评述：(二)不确定性及其应对

不确定性因素,尤其是行为的不确定性,给能源转型研究带来极大挑战。从随机性和模糊性两个方面讨论其主客观本质;从模型与参数、工况、扰动(故障)、观点、行为等方面分析能源转型分析中不确定性因素的来源;按对不确定性因素的认知程度对其分类;归纳能源转型不确定性分析方法的现状;针对不确定性因素数量多、差异大的特点,提出了融合多种不同方法以兼顾计算量与准确性的综合分析框架。

A Review of Energy Transition Analysis Part Two Uncertainties and Approaches

Uncertainties, especially the uncertainties of human behavior, introduce great challenges to energy transition analysis. This paper discusses the nature of uncertainty in terms of randomness and vagueness; analyzes the sources of uncer-tainty in terms of model and parameters, operation conditions, disturbances(failures), viewpoints of stakeholders, and human behaviors; and classifies the uncertainty into different categories based on cognitive level. The-state-of-the-art of uncertainty analysis approaches for energy transition and their limitations are reviewed. Aiming to address the chal-lenges introduced by large amount of uncertainties with various characteristics, a comprehensive analysis framework that integrates multiple approaches is proposed to give consideration to both the rapidity and accuracy of the uncer-tainty analysis simultaneously.