基于SP/A理论的发电商报价决策模型

在电力市场中,发电商的报价决策是一个风险决策过程.目前,一般使用效用函数描述发电商对风险的偏好程度.然而事实证明,效用函数关于决策者风险偏好始终一致的假设并不符合一般决策者心理.为此,使用价值函数代替效用函数来描述发电商变化的风险偏好,并借鉴SP/A(安全、潜力和期望)理论的决策思想,建立了发电商报价决策模型.该模型计及了安全概率和达到预期利润目标概率对发电商决策结果的影响,因而使得所选报价方案更符合发电商的心理愿望.最后通过算例验证了所建决策模型的有效性.

Novel Decision-making Model for Generation Company Based on SP/A Theory

In electricity market, the bidding strategy selection of generation companies is a risk decision-making process. At present, the utility function is generally adopted to describe the risk preference degrees of generation companies. However, facts prove that the consistent supposition of the risk preference in utility function doesn' t conform to the common decision-maker psychology. So, replacing the utility function with a value function to describe the changeable risk preference of generation companies and using the decision psychology of SP/A (security, potential and aspiration) theory for reference, a decision-making model of generation companies is proposed, which takes into account the influence of security probabilities and the probability to achieve the expected profit goal on the decision-making results of generation companies, thus causes the selected bidding strategy to conform to the generation companies' psychological desire much more. At last, numerical results prove the efficiency of the proposed model.